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A distinct regime for a distinct product
Overview
Prediction Markets let participants take positions on the outcome of real-world events, with prices set by the market. Under Tobique law, a duly authorised Event Contract is regulated as market activity, not as betting, gaming or a lottery. A Prediction Market Permit is separate from a Tobique gaming licence and does not cover casino, lottery or fixed-odds bookmaking.
Structure
01
The statute establishing the regime and the Authority.
02
Detailed rules on conduct, financial crime, digital assets, safeguarding, technology and reporting.
03
Issued by the Authority.
Key features
01
Permit Holders operate entirely in approved digital assets and stablecoins. They never hold participant fiat; conversion happens through approved external providers.
02
Order book, peer-to-peer, AMM, request-for-quote, principal and hybrid models can all be approved. No blockchain, vendor or venue is mandated.
03
Approved providers screen on-chain flows and monitor settlement and solvency alongside the operator's own controls.
04
Operators act as front-line regulators of their own markets, with real-time surveillance and insider-trading controls.
05
The Authority can run regulatory pilots and sandbox arrangements for new products and settlement methods.
Event Contracts
How each category of Event Contract is treated under the framework.
| Category | Treatment |
|---|---|
| Sports and esports | Permitted |
| Entertainment and culture | Permitted, subject to conditions |
| Politics and elections | Permitted, subject to conditions (Tobique elections excluded) |
| Economic and financial indicators | Permitted, subject to conditions |
| Disasters, conflict, loss of life | Prohibited |
| Tobique community affairs | Prohibited |
Review what applicants must demonstrate, see the cost and application process, or contact the Authority to discuss your proposed business model and markets.
